Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 34.933771 37.651242 40.624426 44.147133 48.245168 52.911125 58.698792
2025-09-28 30.520959 33.977789 37.993436 43.091500 49.529418 57.598249 68.853494
2025-10-05 29.134891 33.227094 38.203418 44.881818 53.927593 66.310416 85.757386
2025-10-12 27.782828 32.255338 37.884844 45.775970 57.099767 73.850884 103.341243
2025-10-19 26.623253 31.357420 37.486991 46.401577 59.863097 81.274422 123.640735
2025-10-26 25.528826 30.419673 36.899887 46.620359 61.964710 88.050511 146.091246
2025-11-02 24.311963 29.212936 35.816387 45.951770 62.503562 92.182476 165.322469
2025-11-09 23.110349 27.941702 34.533349 44.828334 62.089571 94.397013 181.377359
2025-11-16 22.093828 26.861316 33.439590 43.878280 61.814793 96.797930 199.951055
2025-11-23 21.290076 26.029300 32.643746 43.312476 62.120452 100.472771 226.199912
2025-11-30 20.936317 25.803417 32.709668 44.119553 65.026554 110.750336 291.332626
2025-12-07 20.307915 25.152426 32.097088 43.744002 65.620489 115.760988 343.900526
2025-12-14 19.500209 24.237582 31.078815 42.678516 64.869756 117.586777 387.941907
2025-12-21 18.764627 23.400190 30.140578 41.687727 64.168845 119.483953 442.297210
2025-12-28 18.712400 23.550322 30.722100 43.374908 69.304628 140.415440 830.640124
2026-01-04 18.470372 23.404738 30.826026 44.216547 72.793834 158.764100 1825.727137
2026-01-11 18.190526 23.186892 30.796977 44.804955 75.829556 178.020926 9731.987574
2026-01-18 17.853008 22.865372 30.578395 45.010642 77.990269 195.857333 NaN
2026-01-25 17.378104 22.315245 29.955377 44.381931 77.936352 203.810956 NaN
2026-02-01 16.850551 21.667040 29.142250 43.324555 76.619486 204.844498 NaN
2026-02-08 16.380982 21.094410 28.433126 42.429435 75.628879 207.348343 NaN
2026-02-15 16.001978 20.650515 27.921905 41.895939 75.550574 215.234149 NaN
2026-02-22 15.873045 20.589589 28.050386 42.656838 79.187825 249.985678 NaN